INDIANA STATE
SYCAMORESINST
9-9 | Road
81
MURRAY STATE
RACERSMUR
15-3 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
SYCAMORES
100%
RACERS
0%
SYCAMORES
--
RACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Murray State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)
INST By 1-7 points
6.8%
INST By 8-14 points
1.7%
MUR By 1-7 points
18.6%
MUR By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana State
70
INDIANA STATE
Murray State
83
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
Indiana State
75
INDIANA STATE
Murray State
72
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Racers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Sycamores
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Racers (-11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Sycamores (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u167.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 12, 2026
MUR @ INST
74 - 72
Jan 17, 2026
INST @ MUR
81 - 85
Feb 25, 2025
INST @ MUR
75 - 85
Dec 18, 2024
MUR @ INST
74 - 84
Mar 3, 2024
MUR @ INST
77 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+70.0% more
Murray State: 4.4
vs
Indiana State: 2.6
Rebounding (L5)
+12.2% more
Murray State: 37.3
vs
Indiana State: 33.2
Turnovers (L5)
+10.0% more
Murray State: 11.2
vs
Indiana State: 10.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.7%
Murray State: 78.6%
vs
Indiana State: 69.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
INST Score
70.0
81
MUR Score
83.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.3 / 30.0
38.0 / 50.0
Assists
15.1 / 19.6
11.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.4 / 2.6
13.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 48.3
47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
78.6 / 69.8
70.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 33.2
39.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.2 / 5.7
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 10.2
11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
INST
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
MUR
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
INST
Advantage
17-12-1
(58.6%)
Margin: -0.9
ATS +/-: +0.5
MUR
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
INST
MUR
INST
ML
58%
19-14
66%
21-11
61%
20-13
53%
17-15
ATS
52%
17-16
62%
20-12
61%
20-13
53%
17-15
TTL
70%
23-10
53%
17-15
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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