Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Blue Hens NMSU @ DEL

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

9-7  |  Road

97
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 2:00 PM ET
Bob Carpenter Center
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

BLUE HENSDEL

5-12  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
0%
📊
BLUE HENS
100%
AGGIES --
BLUE HENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
120.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (New Mexico State)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 Blue HensDEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

91.9%

Blue Hens Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NMSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

NMSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

DEL By 1-7 points

5.8%

DEL By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
67
NEW MEXICO STATE
53
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
70
NEW MEXICO STATE
75
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Hens Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Blue Hens (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u134.5 Loss
Proj Total: 120.0
D
Sim u134.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 28, 2026 DEL @ NMSU 73 - 64
Jan 17, 2026 NMSU @ DEL 97 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +22.0% more
New Mexico State: 4.7 vs Delaware: 3.7
Blocks (L5) +10.8% more
New Mexico State: 3.3 vs Delaware: 3.0
Assists (L5) +11.3% more
Delaware: 13.4 vs New Mexico State: 12.0
Free Throw % (L5) +7.7%
Delaware: 71.0% vs New Mexico State: 63.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 67.0 97
DEL Score 53.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 37.0 41.0 / 50.0
Assists 13.4 / 12.0 12.0 / 20.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.3 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 43.1 44.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 71.0 / 63.2 72.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 34.0 / 35.8 24.0 / 35.0
Steals 3.7 / 4.7 1.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 9.9 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
DEL
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
DEL Advantage
15-14-1 (51.7%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
DEL
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
NMSU
DEL
NMSU
ML
45% 14-17
61% 19-12
52% 16-15
67% 20-10
ATS
61% 19-12
65% 20-11
52% 16-15
67% 20-10
TTL
65% 20-11
45% 14-17
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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