Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Demon Deacons @ Seminoles WAKE @ FSU

WAKE FOREST

DEMON DEACONSWAKE

10-7  |  Road

69
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 6:00 PM ET
Tucker Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

7-10  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
DEMON DEACONS
100%
📊
SEMINOLES
0%
DEMON DEACONS --
SEMINOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-46.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +46.0 points (Florida State)
Demon DeaconsWAKE (-3.5) 0 SeminolesFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Demon Deacons Cover

0.0%

Seminoles Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -46.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

WAKE By 1-7 points

0.0%

WAKE By 8-14 points

0.0%

FSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

FSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
63
WAKE FOREST
109
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
72
WAKE FOREST
75
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seminoles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seminoles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seminoles (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -46.0
D
Sim Seminoles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o167.5 Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 WAKE @ FSU 69 - 68
Feb 12, 2025 FSU @ WAKE 72 - 70
Jan 9, 2024 WAKE @ FSU 82 - 87
Jan 11, 2023 FSU @ WAKE 75 - 90
Feb 5, 2022 WAKE @ FSU 68 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
Florida State: 31.7 vs Wake Forest: 28.5
Steals (L5) +21.9% more
Wake Forest: 9.3 vs Florida State: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5) +4.7%
Wake Forest: 75.3% vs Florida State: 70.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Wake Forest: 37.5% vs Florida State: 33.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAKE Score 63.0 69
FSU Score 109.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 37.5 23.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.6 / 13.5 10.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.5 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 46.2 38.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 70.5 / 75.3 89.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 28.5 44.0 / 28.0
Steals 7.2 / 9.3 2.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 12.8 16.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAKE
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
FSU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAKE
16-18-1 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WAKE
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.0
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
WAKE
FSU
WAKE
ML
64% 21-12
49% 17-18
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
ATS
55% 18-15
66% 23-12
59% 19-13
61% 20-13
TTL
48% 16-17
60% 21-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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