LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
7-11 | Road
87
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
MATADORSCSUN
11-8 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
100%
MATADORS
0%
BEACH
--
MATADORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
180.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Cal State Northridge)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUN -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUN)
LBSU By 1-7 points
1.7%
LBSU By 8-14 points
0.3%
CSUN By 1-7 points
8.0%
CSUN By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Long Beach State
80
LONG BEACH STATE
Cal State Northridge
100
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Simulated Score
Long Beach State
70
LONG BEACH STATE
Cal State Northridge
82
CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Matadors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Matadors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Matadors (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Matadors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o158.5
Win
Proj Total: 180.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
CSUN @ LBSU
78 - 76
Jan 17, 2026
LBSU @ CSUN
87 - 80
Feb 8, 2025
CSUN @ LBSU
81 - 80
Jan 23, 2025
LBSU @ CSUN
76 - 86
Feb 17, 2024
LBSU @ CSUN
87 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+25.0% more
Cal State Northridge: 43.1
vs
Long Beach State: 34.5
Assists (L5)
+8.9% more
Cal State Northridge: 17.1
vs
Long Beach State: 15.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.1%
Long Beach State: 73.2%
vs
Cal State Northridge: 59.1%
Blocks (L5)
+12.7% more
Long Beach State: 3.3
vs
Cal State Northridge: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score
80.0
87
CSUN Score
100.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.4 / 41.8
26.0 / 33.0
Assists
17.1 / 15.7
14.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.3
4.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
47.6 / 51.2
41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
59.1 / 73.2
72.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 34.5
43.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.3 / 6.8
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 11.6
15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUN
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CSUN
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 1.6
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
CSUN
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUN
LBSU
CSUN
LBSU
ML
58%
19-14
55%
17-14
67%
22-11
65%
20-11
ATS
58%
19-14
68%
21-10
67%
22-11
65%
20-11
TTL
58%
19-14
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
