Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Tigers MIZ @ LSU

MISSOURI

TIGERSMIZ

13-4  |  Road

70
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 3:30 PM ET
Pete Maravich Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LSU

TIGERSLSU

12-5  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
TIGERS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (LSU)
TigersMIZ (-3.5) 0 TigersLSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

21.2%

Tigers Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)

MIZ By 1-7 points

13.7%

MIZ By 8-14 points

4.8%

LSU By 1-7 points

25.3%

LSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
65
MISSOURI
73
LSU
Simulated Score
68
MISSOURI
72
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 MIZ @ LSU 70 - 78
Jan 7, 2025 LSU @ MIZ 67 - 83
Mar 9, 2024 MIZ @ LSU 80 - 84
Mar 1, 2023 MIZ @ LSU 81 - 76
Feb 1, 2023 LSU @ MIZ 77 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +15.9% more
LSU: 5.0 vs Missouri: 4.3
Free Throw % (L5) +10.7%
LSU: 74.2% vs Missouri: 63.5%
Assists (L5) +22.0% more
Missouri: 17.3 vs LSU: 13.5
Steals (L5) +15.9% more
Missouri: 6.1 vs LSU: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 65.0 70
LSU Score 73.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 37.6 38.0 / 33.0
Assists 13.5 / 17.3 12.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.3 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 50.7 42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 63.5 78.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 32.5 35.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.1 / 6.1 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 12.3 7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
MIZ
LSU
MIZ
ML
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
69% 22-10
ATS
66% 21-11
70% 23-10
62% 20-12
69% 22-10
TTL
72% 23-9
79% 26-7
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day ago
John Calipari Clarifies Stance on Player Compensation After Vira…
sportingnews 5 days, 19 hours ago
Kentucky Appeals Court Ruling Shakes Up Eligibility for Mark Mit…
cbssports 6 days ago
LSU vs. McNeese: The Deep In-State Ties Behind Saturday's Rare S…
lsureveille 1 week ago
Duke Hosts Five-Star Asa Montgomery for Official Visit, Looking …
yahoo 1 week ago