Home / NHL Projections NHL / Maple Leafs @ Jets TOR @ WPG

TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

23-16-8  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Canada Life Centre
View Odds Details →

WINNIPEG

JETSWPG

19-22-5  |  Home

3
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Connor Hellebuyck
GOALTENDER

Connor Hellebuyck

#37 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Connor Hellebuyck None-None 3.80 0.892 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 3.80
-- Save % 0.892
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
JETS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
JETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WINNIPEG
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Winnipeg)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 JetsWPG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Jets Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WPG -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WPG)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WPG By 1 goal

19.7%

WPG By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
4
WINNIPEG
Simulated Score
2
TORONTO
4
WINNIPEG
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jets Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jets (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Jets (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 TOR @ WPG 4 - 3
Jan 1, 2026 WPG @ TOR 5 - 6
Dec 23, 2024 WPG @ TOR 5 - 2
Oct 28, 2024 TOR @ WPG 6 - 4
Jan 27, 2024 TOR @ WPG 4 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +8.2% more
Winnipeg: 19.3 vs Toronto: 17.9
Takeaways (L5) +29.8% more
Toronto: 5.2 vs Winnipeg: 3.6
Blocked Shots (L5) +29.2% more
Toronto: 17.5 vs Winnipeg: 12.4
Power Play % (L5) +11.3%
Toronto: 41.5% vs Winnipeg: 30.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 4
WPG Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.4 / 17.5 11.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 48.1 / 56.4 38.8 / 61.2
Hits 19.3 / 17.9 17.0 / 21.0
Power Play % 3020.0 / 4152.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 24.2 / 25.6 30.0 / 37.0
Takeaways 3.6 / 5.2 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
96%MONEY4%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WPG
TOR
WPG
TOR
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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