Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Razorbacks @ Bulldogs ARK @ UGA

ARKANSAS

RAZORBACKSARK

13-4  |  Road

76
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 4:00 PM ET
Stegeman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

BULLDOGSUGA

14-3  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
RAZORBACKS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Georgia)
RazorbacksARK (-3.5) 0 BulldogsUGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Razorbacks Cover

13.6%

Bulldogs Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UGA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)

ARK By 1-7 points

9.3%

ARK By 8-14 points

2.7%

UGA By 1-7 points

21.6%

UGA By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
88
ARKANSAS
99
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
73
ARKANSAS
78
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o181.5 Loss
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim u181.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 ARK @ UGA 76 - 90
Jan 22, 2025 UGA @ ARK 65 - 68
Feb 10, 2024 UGA @ ARK 75 - 78
Jan 10, 2024 ARK @ UGA 66 - 76
Feb 21, 2023 UGA @ ARK 65 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +15.4% more
Georgia: 39.8 vs Arkansas: 34.5
Turnovers (L5) +11.4% more
Georgia: 9.6 vs Arkansas: 8.6
Steals (L5) +29.1% more
Arkansas: 8.8 vs Georgia: 6.3
Assists (L5) +26.3% more
Arkansas: 18.4 vs Georgia: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARK Score 88.0 76
UGA Score 99.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 39.5 36.0 / 24.0
Assists 13.6 / 18.4 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 5.0 / 5.5 12.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 51.3 46.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 76.1 88.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 39.8 / 34.5 35.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.3 / 8.8 12.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 8.6 17.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
UGA
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK Advantage
23-14-0 (62.2%)
Margin: 9.2 ATS +/-: +1.9
UGA
15-17-1 (46.9%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5% Total +/-: +8.0
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
ARK
UGA
ARK
ML
67% 22-11
68% 25-12
56% 18-14
81% 25-6
ATS
61% 20-13
70% 26-11
56% 18-14
81% 25-6
TTL
64% 21-12
57% 21-16
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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