Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Warhawks GAST @ ULM

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

6-12  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 3:30 PM ET
Fant-Ewing Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

WARHAWKSULM

3-15  |  Home

57
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
WARHAWKS
0%
PANTHERS --
WARHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UL Monroe)
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 WarhawksULM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

46.0%

Warhawks Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ULM -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)

GAST By 1-7 points

24.3%

GAST By 8-14 points

13.7%

ULM By 1-7 points

26.2%

ULM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
87
GEORGIA STATE
88
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
60
GEORGIA STATE
74
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warhawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warhawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warhawks (+6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warhawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 GAST @ ULM 77 - 57
Feb 5, 2025 ULM @ GAST 64 - 97
Jan 5, 2023 GAST @ ULM 58 - 66
Feb 23, 2022 ULM @ GAST 70 - 82
Jan 29, 2022 GAST @ ULM 73 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +66.8% more
UL Monroe: 4.6 vs Georgia State: 2.8
Turnovers (L5) +28.7% more
UL Monroe: 13.6 vs Georgia State: 10.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.8%
UL Monroe: 41.0% vs Georgia State: 31.2%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
UL Monroe: 43.4% vs Georgia State: 40.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 87.0 77
ULM Score 88.0 57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 31.2 31.0 / 42.0
Assists 12.1 / 11.3 11.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.6 / 2.8 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 40.6 34.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 80.8 70.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 31.6 / 35.5 38.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.3 2.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 10.5 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
ULM
4-28-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
ULM Advantage
18-12-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.5 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
GAST
ULM
GAST
ML
50% 16-16
56% 18-14
70% 21-9
71% 22-9
ATS
78% 25-7
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
71% 22-9
TTL
59% 19-13
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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