Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bruins @ Salukis BEL @ SIU

BELMONT

BRUINSBEL

16-3  |  Road

73
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Banterra Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS

SALUKISSIU

8-10  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
0%
📊
SALUKIS
100%
BRUINS --
SALUKIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
BELMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Belmont)
BruinsBEL (-3.5) 0 SalukisSIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

65.5%

Salukis Cover

34.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BEL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BEL)

BEL By 1-7 points

27.4%

BEL By 8-14 points

21.6%

SIU By 1-7 points

20.1%

SIU By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
BELMONT
70
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
68
BELMONT
72
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Salukis Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bruins (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Salukis (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 BEL @ SIU 73 - 68
Jan 4, 2026 SIU @ BEL 68 - 67
Feb 15, 2025 BEL @ SIU 73 - 68
Jan 8, 2025 SIU @ BEL 86 - 90
Feb 14, 2024 SIU @ BEL 68 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +15.3%
Belmont: 77.4% vs Southern Illinois: 62.0%
Assists (L5) +14.6% more
Belmont: 16.2 vs Southern Illinois: 13.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +13.2%
Belmont: 38.3% vs Southern Illinois: 25.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +9.2%
Belmont: 51.4% vs Southern Illinois: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BEL Score 74.0 73
SIU Score 70.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 25.1 / 38.3 36.0 / 20.0
Assists 13.9 / 16.2 15.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.8 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 51.4 36.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 62.0 / 77.4 85.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 38.4 / 34.7 37.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.1 / 6.3 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 11.5 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BEL Advantage
26-6-0 (81.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
SIU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BEL Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +2.2
SIU
16-15-0 (51.6%)
Margin: 3.4 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +4.1
SIU
9-22-0
O: 29.0% / U: 71.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIU
BEL
SIU
BEL
ML
53% 17-15
47% 15-17
47% 15-17
62% 20-12
ATS
56% 18-14
56% 18-14
47% 15-17
62% 20-12
TTL
53% 17-15
44% 14-18
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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