Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Devils @ Cardinal DUKE @ STAN

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

16-1  |  Road

80
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 6:00 PM ET
Maples Pavilion
View Odds Details →

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

14-4  |  Home

50
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE DEVILS
100%
📊
CARDINAL
0%
BLUE DEVILS --
CARDINAL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
STANFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Stanford)
Blue DevilsDUKE (-3.5) 0 CardinalSTAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Devils Cover

0.8%

Cardinal Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around STAN -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

DUKE By 1-7 points

0.6%

DUKE By 8-14 points

0.1%

STAN By 1-7 points

4.0%

STAN By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
64
DUKE
88
STANFORD
Simulated Score
65
DUKE
78
STANFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinal Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinal Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinal (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Cardinal (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 17, 2026 DUKE @ STAN 80 - 50
Feb 15, 2025 STAN @ DUKE 70 - 106
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.5%
Stanford: 73.0% vs Duke: 65.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Stanford: 39.0% vs Duke: 31.8%
Steals (L5) +22.5% more
Duke: 8.9 vs Stanford: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +22.4% more
Duke: 3.5 vs Stanford: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 64.0 80
STAN Score 88.0 50
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 31.8 24.0 / 40.0
Assists 13.2 / 15.9 8.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.7 / 3.5 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 47.9 35.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 65.4 60.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 29.6 / 36.6 29.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.9 / 8.9 4.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 12.0 18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
98%TICKETS2%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
STAN
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STAN
DUKE
STAN
DUKE
ML
48% 16-17
71% 27-11
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
ATS
48% 16-17
79% 30-8
50% 16-16
73% 24-9
TTL
55% 18-15
47% 18-20
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rutgers Men's Basketball Releases Full 2026-27 Schedule with TV …
yahoo 1 day, 1 hour ago
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 13 hours ago
Tom Moore Retires from UConn GM Role, Eyes Broadcasting Career
yahoo 2 days, 13 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Lee University Basketball Alum Todd Amburgy: A Legacy of Defense…
chattanoogan 5 days, 20 hours ago