ARIZONA
WILDCATSARIZ
17-0 | Road
84
UCF
KNIGHTSUCF
14-2 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
KNIGHTS
100%
WILDCATS
--
KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)
ARIZ By 1-7 points
16.9%
ARIZ By 8-14 points
26.2%
UCF By 1-7 points
5.8%
UCF By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
74
ARIZONA
UCF
60
UCF
Simulated Score
Arizona
78
ARIZONA
UCF
68
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wildcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Wildcats (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Wildcats (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u165.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
UCF @ ARIZ
59 - 81
Jan 17, 2026
ARIZ @ UCF
84 - 77
Jan 11, 2025
UCF @ ARIZ
80 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.1% more
Arizona: 4.9
vs
UCF: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+23.5% more
Arizona: 7.9
vs
UCF: 6.0
Rebounding (L5)
+16.3% more
Arizona: 42.7
vs
UCF: 35.7
Assists (L5)
+9.4% more
Arizona: 18.5
vs
UCF: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score
74.0
84
UCF Score
60.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.5 / 36.3
31.0 / 23.0
Assists
16.7 / 18.5
13.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.9 / 4.9
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.9 / 52.3
40.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
68.1 / 76.7
93.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
35.7 / 42.7
36.0 / 37.0
Steals
6.0 / 7.9
6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 9.9
13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ
Advantage
36-3-0
(92.3%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
UCF
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
Advantage
23-15-1
(60.5%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +3.2
UCF
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: -1.4
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
ARIZ
UCF
ARIZ
ML
55%
18-15
67%
26-13
65%
20-11
68%
23-11
ATS
55%
18-15
74%
29-10
65%
20-11
68%
23-11
TTL
61%
20-13
56%
22-17
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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