IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
12-5 | Road
74
INDIANA
HOOSIERSIU
12-5 | Home
57
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
100%
HOOSIERS
0%
HAWKEYES
--
HOOSIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Indiana)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around IU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)
IOWA By 1-7 points
24.3%
IOWA By 8-14 points
13.7%
IU By 1-7 points
26.2%
IU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa
73
IOWA
Indiana
74
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Iowa
72
IOWA
Indiana
79
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hoosiers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hoosiers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hoosiers (+3.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Hoosiers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
IOWA @ IU
74 - 57
Jan 11, 2025
IU @ IOWA
60 - 85
Jan 30, 2024
IOWA @ IU
68 - 74
Feb 28, 2023
IOWA @ IU
90 - 68
Jan 5, 2023
IU @ IOWA
89 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+9.2% more
Indiana: 12.4
vs
Iowa: 11.3
Blocks (L5)
+56.2% more
Iowa: 2.8
vs
Indiana: 1.2
Steals (L5)
+21.2% more
Iowa: 6.6
vs
Indiana: 5.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Iowa: 48.3%
vs
Indiana: 45.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score
73.0
74
IU Score
74.0
57
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 37.3
25.0 / 37.0
Assists
16.0 / 15.5
9.0 / 15.0
Blocks
1.2 / 2.8
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 48.3
38.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 77.3
73.0 / 91.0
Rebounding
30.2 / 29.8
27.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.2 / 6.6
3.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 11.3
9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
IU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
IU
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 6.0
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
IOWA
IU
IOWA
ML
66%
21-11
59%
22-15
71%
22-9
78%
28-8
ATS
53%
17-15
76%
28-9
71%
22-9
78%
28-8
TTL
56%
18-14
57%
21-16
100%
31-0
100%
36-0
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