Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Braves @ Redbirds BRAD @ ILST

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

13-6  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Jan 17 • 2:00 PM ET
CEFCU Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

12-6  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
📊
REDBIRDS
100%
BRAVES --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
116.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
BRADLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Bradley)
BravesBRAD (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

94.5%

Redbirds Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BRAD -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRAD)

BRAD By 1-7 points

13.7%

BRAD By 8-14 points

24.3%

ILST By 1-7 points

4.0%

ILST By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
66
BRADLEY
50
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
68
BRADLEY
75
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redbirds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Braves (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Redbirds (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 116.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ILST @ BRAD 60 - 74
Jan 17, 2026 BRAD @ ILST 62 - 88
Feb 19, 2025 BRAD @ ILST 71 - 82
Jan 25, 2025 ILST @ BRAD 57 - 61
Feb 24, 2024 ILST @ BRAD 45 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.7% more
Bradley: 3.2 vs Illinois State: 2.1
Steals (L5) +14.4% more
Bradley: 6.8 vs Illinois State: 5.8
Assists (L5) +13.1% more
Bradley: 14.0 vs Illinois State: 12.2
Rebounding (L5) +9.9% more
Bradley: 37.5 vs Illinois State: 33.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRAD Score 66.0 62
ILST Score 50.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 32.7 43.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.2 / 14.0 17.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.1 / 3.2 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 45.6 53.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 72.4 77.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 37.5 42.0 / 31.0
Steals 5.8 / 6.8 3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.4 / 7.0 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRAD
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
BRAD
ILST
BRAD
ML
42% 15-21
65% 22-12
71% 24-10
68% 23-11
ATS
58% 21-15
59% 20-14
71% 24-10
68% 23-11
TTL
58% 21-15
68% 23-11
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Clemson's Brad Brownell Reveals New Identity, Injury Updates at …
si 1 day ago
Nebraska Basketball Opens Preseason Practice After Historic 28-W…
now1011 2 weeks, 1 day ago
Illinois Basketball: Three Reasons the Illini Are National Title…
si 3 weeks, 3 days ago
Brad Underwood Reveals Why Illinois Added Under-the-Radar Transf…
si 3 weeks, 5 days ago
Brady Pretzlaff's Long Road Back to Spartan Stadium: A Promise F…
yahoo 3 weeks, 5 days ago