MINNESOTA
GOLDEN GOPHERSMINN
10-7 | Road
67
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
14-3 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GOPHERS
100%
FIGHTING ILLINI
0%
GOLDEN GOPHERS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
MINN By 1-7 points
0.0%
MINN By 8-14 points
0.0%
ILL By 1-7 points
0.4%
ILL By 8-14 points
2.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
49
MINNESOTA
Illinois
83
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Minnesota
69
MINNESOTA
Illinois
78
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Fighting Illini
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Fighting Illini (-15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Sim
Fighting Illini (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u142.5
Loss
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u142.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
MINN @ ILL
67 - 77
Feb 8, 2025
ILL @ MINN
95 - 74
Feb 28, 2024
MINN @ ILL
97 - 105
Feb 20, 2023
MINN @ ILL
69 - 78
Jan 16, 2023
ILL @ MINN
78 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+68.4% more
Illinois: 4.1
vs
Minnesota: 2.4
Rebounding (L5)
+27.3% more
Illinois: 38.9
vs
Minnesota: 30.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+19.9%
Illinois: 88.5%
vs
Minnesota: 68.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.2%
Illinois: 35.4%
vs
Minnesota: 31.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MINN Score
49.0
67
ILL Score
83.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 31.2
37.0 / 34.0
Assists
13.4 / 19.7
16.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.1 / 2.4
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 47.5
41.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
88.5 / 68.6
84.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
38.9 / 30.5
42.0 / 31.0
Steals
4.8 / 6.3
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 9.0
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
ILL
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN
14-18-1
(43.8%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: -3.9
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
MINN
ILL
MINN
ML
65%
24-13
48%
16-17
57%
20-15
71%
22-9
ATS
70%
26-11
55%
18-15
57%
20-15
71%
22-9
TTL
57%
21-16
52%
17-16
100%
35-0
100%
31-0
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