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MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

27-14  |  Road

105
FINAL
Fri, Jan 16 • 9:30 PM ET
Toyota Center (Houston)
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

23-15  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Minnesota)
TimberwolvesMIN (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

81.6%

Rockets Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-7 points

24.3%

MIN By 8-14 points

26.8%

HOU By 1-7 points

12.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
118
MINNESOTA
109
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
110
MINNESOTA
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o221.5 Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u221.5 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 MIN @ HOU 136 - 132
Mar 25, 2026 HOU @ MIN 108 - 110
Jan 16, 2026 MIN @ HOU 105 - 110
Feb 21, 2025 MIN @ HOU 115 - 121
Feb 6, 2025 HOU @ MIN 114 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +31.9% more
Minnesota: 30.7 vs Houston: 20.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +16.2%
Minnesota: 43.5% vs Houston: 27.3%
Steals (L5) +15.6% more
Minnesota: 8.8 vs Houston: 7.4
Field Goal % (L5) +11.5%
Minnesota: 53.4% vs Houston: 41.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 118.0 105
HOU Score 109.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.3 / 43.5 43.0 / 37.0
Assists 20.9 / 30.7 19.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.4 / 4.8 5.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 53.4 46.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 74.7 / 64.2 59.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 53.4 / 46.3 42.0 / 45.0
Steals 7.4 / 8.8 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.4 / 13.9 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
17%MONEY83%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
MIN
HOU
MIN
ML
61% 69-44
54% 63-53
59% 51-35
54% 50-43
ATS
62% 70-43
58% 67-49
59% 51-35
54% 50-43
TTL
51% 58-55
63% 72-43-1
100% 86-0
100% 93-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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