BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
11-5 | Road
62
KANSAS
JAYHAWKSKU
12-5 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
JAYHAWKS
0%
BEARS
--
JAYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
188.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Kansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)
BAY By 1-7 points
20.1%
BAY By 8-14 points
9.3%
KU By 1-7 points
27.4%
KU By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Baylor
92
BAYLOR
Kansas
96
KANSAS
Simulated Score
Baylor
73
BAYLOR
Kansas
78
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jayhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jayhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jayhawks (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Jayhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o157.5
Loss
Proj Total: 188.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 16, 2026
BAY @ KU
62 - 80
Feb 1, 2025
KU @ BAY
70 - 81
Mar 2, 2024
KU @ BAY
74 - 82
Feb 10, 2024
BAY @ KU
61 - 64
Feb 18, 2023
BAY @ KU
71 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+22.5% more
Kansas: 7.2
vs
Baylor: 5.9
Blocks (L5)
+19.0% more
Kansas: 6.4
vs
Baylor: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.3%
Kansas: 80.1%
vs
Baylor: 70.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Kansas: 40.8%
vs
Baylor: 38.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAY Score
92.0
62
KU Score
96.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 38.8
29.0 / 38.0
Assists
14.9 / 16.1
15.0 / 9.0
Blocks
6.4 / 5.4
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 48.1
51.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
80.1 / 70.9
85.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
37.2 / 38.5
37.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.2 / 5.9
8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 12.9
4.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
KU
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
KU
Advantage
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
BAY
KU
BAY
ML
57%
20-15
58%
19-14
68%
21-10
53%
17-15
ATS
49%
17-18
58%
19-14
68%
21-10
53%
17-15
TTL
60%
21-14
45%
15-18
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
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