CREIGHTON
BLUEJAYSCREI
11-7 | Road
88
PROVIDENCE
FRIARSPROV
8-9 | Home
93
AI Model Win Probability
BLUEJAYS
100%
FRIARS
0%
BLUEJAYS
--
FRIARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
PROVIDENCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Providence)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PROV -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PROV)
CREI By 1-7 points
4.0%
CREI By 8-14 points
0.8%
PROV By 1-7 points
13.7%
PROV By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Creighton
69
CREIGHTON
Providence
85
PROVIDENCE
Simulated Score
Creighton
72
CREIGHTON
Providence
75
PROVIDENCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Friars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Friars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Friars (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Friars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u162.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
PROV @ CREI
79 - 76
Jan 16, 2026
CREI @ PROV
88 - 93
Feb 5, 2025
CREI @ PROV
80 - 69
Jan 14, 2025
PROV @ CREI
64 - 84
Mar 14, 2024
PROV @ CREI
78 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.8% more
Providence: 3.4
vs
Creighton: 2.3
Turnovers (L5)
+45.5% more
Providence: 12.4
vs
Creighton: 8.5
Assists (L5)
+18.9% more
Providence: 14.8
vs
Creighton: 12.4
Rebounding (L5)
+14.0% more
Providence: 35.2
vs
Creighton: 30.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CREI Score
69.0
88
PROV Score
85.0
93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.7 / 35.9
24.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.8 / 12.4
13.0 / 15.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.3
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 48.2
45.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 78.7
71.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 30.9
46.0 / 37.0
Steals
4.8 / 5.6
7.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 8.5
10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CREI
Advantage
16-18-0
(47.1%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: -2.9
PROV
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CREI
11-22-1
(33.3%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-: -2.9
PROV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CREI
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: +0.1
PROV
22-11-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PROV
CREI
PROV
CREI
ML
59%
19-13
52%
17-16
67%
20-10
70%
21-9
ATS
50%
16-16
58%
19-14
67%
20-10
70%
21-9
TTL
44%
14-18
52%
17-16
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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