Home / NBA Projections NBA / Knicks @ Warriors NY @ GS

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

25-15  |  Road

113
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

22-19  |  Home

126
AI Model Win Probability
KNICKS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
KNICKS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
KnicksNY (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knicks Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

NY By 1-7 points

26.2%

NY By 8-14 points

16.9%

GS By 1-7 points

24.3%

GS By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
114
NEW YORK
113
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
114
NEW YORK
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knicks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u227.5 Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u227.5 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 15, 2026 GS @ NY 107 - 110
Jan 15, 2026 NY @ GS 113 - 126
Mar 15, 2025 NY @ GS 94 - 97
Mar 4, 2025 GS @ NY 114 - 102
Mar 18, 2024 NY @ GS 119 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +10.7% more
New York: 5.0 vs Golden State: 4.4
Rebounding (L5) +10.6% more
New York: 45.2 vs Golden State: 40.4
Assists (L5) +24.9% more
Golden State: 32.0 vs New York: 25.7
Steals (L5) +15.9% more
Golden State: 10.0 vs New York: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NY Score 114.0 113
GS Score 113.0 126
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 32.5 44.0 / 37.0
Assists 32.0 / 25.7 26.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.4 / 5.0 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 44.4 54.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 87.1 / 76.4 77.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 40.4 / 45.2 38.0 / 41.0
Steals 10.0 / 8.6 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 12.7 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
NY
GS
NY
ML
55% 95-79
61% 114-72
58% 49-35
56% 57-45
ATS
58% 101-73
67% 124-62
58% 49-35
56% 57-45
TTL
77% 134-40
72% 133-53
100% 84-0
100% 102-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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