TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
23-16-7 | Road
5
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
22-11-12 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Adin Hill | None-None | 4.89 | 0.821 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
4.89
--
Save %
0.821
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
VGK By 1 goal
19.7%
VGK By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 8, 2026
TOR @ VGK
3 - 4
Jan 23, 2026
VGK @ TOR
6 - 3
Jan 15, 2026
TOR @ VGK
5 - 6
Mar 5, 2025
TOR @ VGK
2 - 5
Nov 20, 2024
VGK @ TOR
0 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+25.1%
Vegas: 37.4%
vs
Toronto: 12.3%
Hits (L5)
+15.9% more
Vegas: 21.2
vs
Toronto: 18.3
Shots on Goal (L5)
+12.8% more
Vegas: 27.5
vs
Toronto: 24.4
Blocked Shots (L5)
+21.6% more
Toronto: 19.2
vs
Vegas: 15.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.0
5
VGK Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.1 / 19.2
15.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
45.4 / 53.5
37.7 / 62.3
Hits
21.2 / 18.3
18.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
37.4 / 12.3
66.7 / 100.0
Shots on Goal
27.5 / 24.4
33.0 / 28.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 5.3
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
TOR
VGK
TOR
ML
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
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