PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
22-15-8 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PENGUINSPIT
21-14-10 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Aleksei Kolosov
#35 | G@
GOALTENDER
Kris Letang
#58 | Defense| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksei Kolosov | None-None | 4.77 | 0.813 | -- |
| Kris Letang | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.77
GAA
--
0.813
Save %
--
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
PENGUINS
0%
FLYERS
--
PENGUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PHI By 1 goal
12.1%
PHI By 2-3 goals
9.3%
PIT By 1 goal
19.7%
PIT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Penguins
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Penguins
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Penguins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Penguins (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
7 - 0
Apr 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 1
Apr 27, 2026
PHI @ PIT
2 - 3
Apr 25, 2026
PIT @ PHI
4 - 2
Apr 22, 2026
PIT @ PHI
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+77.9% more
Pittsburgh: 5.5
vs
Philadelphia: 3.1
Shots on Goal (L5)
+21.5% more
Pittsburgh: 28.8
vs
Philadelphia: 23.7
Blocked Shots (L5)
+19.7% more
Pittsburgh: 15.8
vs
Philadelphia: 13.2
Hits (L5)
+44.8% more
Philadelphia: 26.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 14.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.0
3
PIT Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.8 / 13.2
14.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
51.8 / 51.5
52.8 / 47.2
Hits
14.9 / 26.9
20.0 / 22.0
Power Play %
8.5 / 15.1
75.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
28.8 / 23.7
30.0 / 33.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 3.1
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
PHI
PIT
PHI
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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