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SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

23-19-3  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

24-17-6  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Alex Nedeljkovic
GOALTENDER

Alex Nedeljkovic

#33 | Goaltender
@
Logan Thompson
GOALTENDER

Logan Thompson

#48 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Alex Nedeljkovic None-None 2.00 0.913 --
Logan Thompson None-None 3.16 0.885 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.00 Ldr GAA 3.16
0.913 Ldr Save % 0.885
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
SHARKS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Washington)
SharksSJ (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sharks Cover

30.9%

Capitals Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

SJ By 1 goal

12.1%

SJ By 2-3 goals

9.3%

WSH By 1 goal

19.7%

WSH By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SAN JOSE
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
2
SAN JOSE
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 15, 2026 SJ @ WSH 3 - 2
Dec 3, 2025 WSH @ SJ 7 - 1
Mar 15, 2025 WSH @ SJ 5 - 1
Dec 3, 2024 SJ @ WSH 2 - 1
Nov 27, 2023 WSH @ SJ 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +26.1% more
Washington: 32.5 vs San Jose: 25.8
Power Play % (L5) +20.3%
San Jose: 31.0% vs Washington: 10.7%
Takeaways (L5) +14.0% more
San Jose: 5.6 vs Washington: 4.8
Blocked Shots (L5) +10.5% more
San Jose: 14.5 vs Washington: 13.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJ Score 3.0 3
WSH Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 13.0 / 14.5 14.0 / 10.0
Faceoff % 49.7 / 49.1 41.7 / 58.3
Hits 18.6 / 20.8 18.0 / 16.0
Power Play % 10.7 / 31.0 50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 32.5 / 25.8 23.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 4.8 / 5.6 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
77%MONEY23%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SJ
WSH
SJ
ML
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
0% 0-3
ATS
100% 3-0
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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