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LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

10-7  |  Road

88
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 9:00 PM ET
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SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

REDHAWKSSEMO

9-8  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
REDHAWKS
0%
LIONS --
REDHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Southeast Missouri State)
LionsLIN (-3.5) 0 RedhawksSEMO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

2.9%

Redhawks Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SEMO -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)

LIN By 1-7 points

2.2%

LIN By 8-14 points

0.4%

SEMO By 1-7 points

9.3%

SEMO By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
71
LINDENWOOD
90
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
70
LINDENWOOD
75
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Redhawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Redhawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Redhawks (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Redhawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o154.5 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u154.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 LIN @ SEMO 66 - 68
Feb 14, 2026 SEMO @ LIN 73 - 61
Jan 15, 2026 LIN @ SEMO 88 - 76
Feb 22, 2025 LIN @ SEMO 58 - 74
Jan 23, 2025 SEMO @ LIN 68 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +14.4% more
Southeast Missouri State: 8.2 vs Lindenwood: 7.1
Blocks (L5) +12.4% more
Southeast Missouri State: 3.4 vs Lindenwood: 3.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Southeast Missouri State: 36.3% vs Lindenwood: 30.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Southeast Missouri State: 48.7% vs Lindenwood: 46.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 71.0 88
SEMO Score 90.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 30.4 27.0 / 37.0
Assists 14.6 / 14.5 9.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.1 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 46.2 37.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 63.3 / 70.3 65.0 / 66.0
Rebounding 29.9 / 35.1 36.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.2 / 7.1 8.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 9.3 / 13.4 14.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
SEMO Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN Advantage
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
SEMO
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEMO
LIN
SEMO
LIN
ML
64% 21-12
47% 15-17
50% 15-15
61% 19-12
ATS
67% 22-11
34% 11-21
50% 15-15
61% 19-12
TTL
58% 19-14
53% 17-15
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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