UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
6-11 | Road
73
LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
6-11 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
0%
BEACH
100%
HIGHLANDERS
--
BEACH
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LONG BEACH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LBSU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LBSU)
UCR By 1-7 points
26.2%
UCR By 8-14 points
16.9%
LBSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
LBSU By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Riverside
71
UC RIVERSIDE
Long Beach State
70
LONG BEACH STATE
Simulated Score
UC Riverside
67
UC RIVERSIDE
Long Beach State
75
LONG BEACH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Highlanders
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beach
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beach (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim
Beach (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 29, 2026
LBSU @ UCR
61 - 71
Jan 15, 2026
UCR @ LBSU
73 - 88
Feb 20, 2025
LBSU @ UCR
66 - 87
Jan 2, 2025
UCR @ LBSU
76 - 60
Mar 14, 2024
UCR @ LBSU
67 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+8.4% more
UC Riverside: 3.8
vs
Long Beach State: 3.5
Steals (L5)
+42.5% more
Long Beach State: 8.2
vs
UC Riverside: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+40.6% more
Long Beach State: 16.0
vs
UC Riverside: 11.4
Rebounding (L5)
+9.1% more
Long Beach State: 34.7
vs
UC Riverside: 31.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCR Score
71.0
73
LBSU Score
70.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 31.6
57.0 / 22.0
Assists
16.0 / 11.4
15.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.5 / 3.8
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 39.7
57.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 73.2
70.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
34.7 / 31.8
34.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.2 / 5.7
4.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 14.0
8.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LBSU
UCR
LBSU
UCR
ML
55%
17-14
66%
21-11
65%
20-11
75%
24-8
ATS
68%
21-10
59%
19-13
65%
20-11
75%
24-8
TTL
61%
19-12
66%
21-11
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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