Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tommies @ Fighting Hawks STMN @ UND

ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA

TOMMIESSTMN

14-4  |  Road

91
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 8:00 PM ET
Betty Engelstad Sioux Center
View Odds Details →

NORTH DAKOTA

FIGHTING HAWKSUND

9-11  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
TOMMIES
100%
📊
FIGHTING HAWKS
0%
TOMMIES --
FIGHTING HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
NORTH DAKOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +30.0 points (North Dakota)
TommiesSTMN (-3.5) 0 Fighting HawksUND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tommies Cover

0.1%

Fighting Hawks Cover

99.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UND -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UND)

STMN By 1-7 points

0.1%

STMN By 8-14 points

0.0%

UND By 1-7 points

1.1%

UND By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
55
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
85
NORTH DAKOTA
Simulated Score
70
ST. THOMAS-MINNESOTA
75
NORTH DAKOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Hawks (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -30.0
D
Sim Fighting Hawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 UND @ STMN 67 - 66
Jan 29, 2026 UND @ STMN 81 - 80
Jan 15, 2026 STMN @ UND 91 - 80
Mar 8, 2025 UND @ STMN 69 - 85
Feb 27, 2025 UND @ STMN 71 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +194.3% more
North Dakota: 3.1 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 1.1
Steals (L5) +8.7% more
North Dakota: 8.4 vs St. Thomas-Minnesota: 7.7
Assists (L5) +37.7% more
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 17.6 vs North Dakota: 11.0
Field Goal % (L5) +9.3%
St. Thomas-Minnesota: 52.9% vs North Dakota: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STMN Score 55.0 91
UND Score 85.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 36.2 37.0 / 67.0
Assists 11.0 / 17.6 7.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.1 / 1.1 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 52.9 45.0 / 65.0
Free Throw % 69.4 / 71.0 77.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 32.6 31.0 / 26.0
Steals 8.4 / 7.7 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 7.4 15.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STMN Advantage
24-10-0 (70.6%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
UND
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STMN
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.2 ATS +/-: +0.8
UND Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
STMN
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: -0.3
UND
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UND
STMN
UND
STMN
ML
44% 15-19
64% 21-12
50% 17-17
64% 21-12
ATS
50% 17-17
70% 23-10
50% 17-17
64% 21-12
TTL
65% 22-12
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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