NORTH FLORIDA
OSPREYSUNF
2-15 | Road
105
NORTH ALABAMA
LIONSUNA
6-9 | Home
91
AI Model Win Probability
OSPREYS
100%
LIONS
0%
OSPREYS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
NORTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (North Alabama)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNA -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNA)
UNF By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNF By 8-14 points
0.0%
UNA By 1-7 points
0.0%
UNA By 8-14 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
North Florida
60
NORTH FLORIDA
North Alabama
105
NORTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
North Florida
72
NORTH FLORIDA
North Alabama
78
NORTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lions
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (-9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o157.5
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 15, 2026
UNF @ UNA
105 - 91
Feb 13, 2025
UNF @ UNA
70 - 83
Jan 18, 2025
UNA @ UNF
90 - 84
Feb 8, 2024
UNA @ UNF
79 - 74
Jan 28, 2023
UNF @ UNA
78 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+61.4% more
North Alabama: 3.1
vs
North Florida: 1.9
Steals (L5)
+54.3% more
North Alabama: 6.9
vs
North Florida: 4.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
North Alabama: 38.2%
vs
North Florida: 32.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
North Alabama: 46.0%
vs
North Florida: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNF Score
60.0
105
UNA Score
105.0
91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 32.1
38.0 / 46.0
Assists
10.6 / 15.4
13.0 / 20.0
Blocks
3.1 / 1.9
5.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 43.5
56.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
68.4 / 83.3
65.0 / 95.0
Rebounding
31.6 / 32.9
32.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.9 / 4.5
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 11.8
9.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNF
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
UNA
Advantage
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNF
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
UNA
10-17-1
(37.0%)
Margin: -8.2
ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
UNA
12-16-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNA
UNF
UNA
UNF
ML
43%
13-17
69%
22-10
57%
16-12
66%
21-11
ATS
60%
18-12
69%
22-10
57%
16-12
66%
21-11
TTL
63%
19-11
66%
21-11
100%
28-0
100%
32-0
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