UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
9-7 | Road
75
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
ROADRUNNERSCSUB
8-10 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
100%
ROADRUNNERS
0%
GAUCHOS
--
ROADRUNNERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Cal State Bakersfield)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CSUB -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSUB)
UCSB By 1-7 points
0.4%
UCSB By 8-14 points
0.0%
CSUB By 1-7 points
2.7%
CSUB By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
67
UC SANTA BARBARA
Cal State Bakersfield
93
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
69
UC SANTA BARBARA
Cal State Bakersfield
58
CAL STATE BAKERSFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Roadrunners (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o144.5
Loss
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
u144.5
Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 15, 2026
UCSB @ CSUB
75 - 69
Dec 6, 2025
CSUB @ UCSB
84 - 109
Mar 12, 2025
CSUB @ UCSB
66 - 71
Feb 6, 2025
UCSB @ CSUB
81 - 75
Jan 9, 2025
CSUB @ UCSB
66 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+122.2% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 3.6
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 1.6
Steals (L5)
+35.8% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 8.1
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 6.0
Rebounding (L5)
+15.2% more
Cal State Bakersfield: 35.9
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 31.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.4%
Cal State Bakersfield: 78.5%
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 76.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
67.0
75
CSUB Score
93.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 38.8
17.0 / 38.0
Assists
12.9 / 16.5
6.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.6 / 1.6
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
41.9 / 48.7
47.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
78.5 / 76.1
71.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
35.9 / 31.2
30.0 / 32.0
Steals
8.1 / 6.0
5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 13.6
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
CSUB
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
Advantage
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
CSUB
11-18-1
(37.9%)
Margin: -9.1
ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
CSUB
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3%
Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSUB
UCSB
CSUB
UCSB
ML
55%
17-14
59%
19-13
71%
22-9
72%
23-9
ATS
61%
19-12
62%
20-12
71%
22-9
72%
23-9
TTL
58%
18-13
47%
15-17
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
