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THE CITADEL

BULLDOGSCIT

4-13  |  Road

66
FINAL
Thu, Jan 15 • 7:00 PM ET
First Horizon Coliseum
View Odds Details →

UNC GREENSBORO

SPARTANSUNCG

6-11  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
BULLDOGS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-47.0
UNC GREENSBORO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +47.0 points (UNC Greensboro)
BulldogsCIT (-3.5) 0 SpartansUNCG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

Spartans Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCG -47.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCG)

CIT By 1-7 points

0.0%

CIT By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNCG By 1-7 points

0.0%

UNCG By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
39
THE CITADEL
86
UNC GREENSBORO
Simulated Score
62
THE CITADEL
75
UNC GREENSBORO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -47.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 UNCG @ CIT 66 - 71
Jan 15, 2026 CIT @ UNCG 66 - 69
Feb 5, 2025 UNCG @ CIT 76 - 61
Jan 15, 2025 CIT @ UNCG 57 - 70
Feb 14, 2024 UNCG @ CIT 76 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +17.2% more
UNC Greensboro: 4.4 vs The Citadel: 3.8
Rebounding (L5) +13.0% more
UNC Greensboro: 38.2 vs The Citadel: 33.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
UNC Greensboro: 41.2% vs The Citadel: 33.7%
Blocks (L5) +66.9% more
The Citadel: 3.0 vs UNC Greensboro: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIT Score 39.0 66
UNCG Score 86.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.2 / 33.7 21.0 / 34.0
Assists 11.4 / 11.2 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 1.0 / 3.0 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.8 / 42.8 43.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 75.2 47.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 38.2 / 33.8 44.0 / 35.0
Steals 4.4 / 3.8 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 13.7 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIT
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
UNCG Advantage
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIT Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -0.2
UNCG
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.9 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CIT
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.9
UNCG
22-10-0
O: 68.8% / U: 31.3% Total +/-: +7.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCG
CIT
UNCG
CIT
ML
38% 13-21
59% 19-13
71% 24-10
62% 20-12
ATS
44% 15-19
62% 20-12
71% 24-10
64% 21-12
TTL
76% 26-8
53% 17-15
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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