UNC ASHEVILLE
BULLDOGSUNCA
8-10 | Road
70
PRESBYTERIAN
BLUE HOSEPRES
8-10 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
BLUE HOSE
0%
BULLDOGS
--
BLUE HOSE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
PRESBYTERIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Presbyterian)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PRES -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PRES)
UNCA By 1-7 points
16.9%
UNCA By 8-14 points
6.8%
PRES By 1-7 points
26.8%
PRES By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
UNC Asheville
59
UNC ASHEVILLE
Presbyterian
65
PRESBYTERIAN
Simulated Score
UNC Asheville
78
UNC ASHEVILLE
Presbyterian
69
PRESBYTERIAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Hose
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Hose (+2)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u134.0
Loss
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim
u134.0
Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
PRES @ UNCA
58 - 57
Jan 14, 2026
UNCA @ PRES
70 - 71
Feb 26, 2025
PRES @ UNCA
64 - 59
Jan 11, 2025
UNCA @ PRES
96 - 87
Feb 14, 2024
PRES @ UNCA
69 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+39.7% more
Presbyterian: 3.5
vs
UNC Asheville: 2.5
Assists (L5)
+8.8% more
Presbyterian: 12.2
vs
UNC Asheville: 11.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.6%
Presbyterian: 48.2%
vs
UNC Asheville: 46.6%
Rebounding (L5)
+16.6% more
UNC Asheville: 38.2
vs
Presbyterian: 31.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UNCA Score
59.0
70
PRES Score
65.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.4 / 37.9
63.0 / 46.0
Assists
12.2 / 11.2
10.0 / 5.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.5
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 46.6
54.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
63.9 / 64.2
52.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 38.2
31.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.0 / 5.1
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 11.7
13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNCA
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
PRES
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNCA
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
PRES
Advantage
17-13-0
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
PRES
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PRES
UNCA
PRES
UNCA
ML
69%
22-10
53%
16-14
80%
24-6
63%
19-11
ATS
59%
19-13
57%
17-13
80%
24-6
63%
19-11
TTL
59%
19-13
60%
18-12
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
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