SAM HOUSTON
BEARKATSSHSU
9-7 | Road
77
JACKSONVILLE STATE
GAMECOCKSJXST
8-8 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
GAMECOCKS
100%
BEARKATS
--
GAMECOCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
114.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Sam Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)
SHSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
SHSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
JXST By 1-7 points
5.8%
JXST By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Sam Houston
64
SAM HOUSTON
Jacksonville State
50
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
Sam Houston
71
SAM HOUSTON
Jacksonville State
75
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bearkats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gamecocks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bearkats (+1)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Gamecocks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u151.0
Win
Proj Total: 114.0
D
Sim
u151.0
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
JXST @ SHSU
78 - 82
Jan 14, 2026
SHSU @ JXST
77 - 62
Feb 13, 2025
JXST @ SHSU
61 - 66
Jan 18, 2025
SHSU @ JXST
62 - 70
Mar 9, 2024
JXST @ SHSU
73 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+21.1% more
Sam Houston: 42.0
vs
Jacksonville State: 33.1
Steals (L5)
+14.9% more
Sam Houston: 7.3
vs
Jacksonville State: 6.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Sam Houston: 76.6%
vs
Jacksonville State: 70.5%
Blocks (L5)
+118.5% more
Jacksonville State: 3.9
vs
Sam Houston: 1.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score
64.0
77
JXST Score
50.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.6 / 36.9
30.0 / 45.0
Assists
13.0 / 13.7
7.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.9 / 1.8
2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 44.2
40.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
70.5 / 76.6
63.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 42.0
27.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.2 / 7.3
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 12.7
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
JXST
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
JXST
13-15-1
(46.4%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.2
JXST
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
SHSU
JXST
SHSU
ML
50%
16-16
55%
18-15
55%
17-14
74%
23-8
ATS
62%
20-12
64%
21-12
55%
17-14
74%
23-8
TTL
62%
20-12
48%
16-17
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
