KENTUCKY
WILDCATSUK
10-6 | Road
75
LSU
TIGERSLSU
12-4 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
TIGERS
100%
WILDCATS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UK -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)
UK By 1-7 points
0.1%
UK By 8-14 points
1.1%
LSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
LSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Kentucky
94
KENTUCKY
LSU
57
LSU
Simulated Score
Kentucky
72
KENTUCKY
LSU
79
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Wildcats (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u151.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
LSU @ UK
82 - 87
Jan 14, 2026
UK @ LSU
75 - 74
Mar 4, 2025
LSU @ UK
64 - 95
Feb 21, 2024
UK @ LSU
74 - 75
Jan 3, 2023
LSU @ UK
71 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+40.4% more
Kentucky: 9.6
vs
LSU: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+17.2% more
Kentucky: 17.2
vs
LSU: 14.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Kentucky: 48.8%
vs
LSU: 45.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Kentucky: 35.9%
vs
LSU: 33.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UK Score
94.0
75
LSU Score
57.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.5 / 35.9
47.0 / 43.0
Assists
14.3 / 17.2
12.0 / 14.0
Blocks
4.5 / 3.8
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 48.8
49.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
77.3 / 69.8
68.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 34.5
32.0 / 29.0
Steals
5.7 / 9.6
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 10.7
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UK
Advantage
22-14-0
(61.1%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UK
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 6.2
ATS +/-: -1.4
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
UK
LSU
UK
ML
62%
20-12
71%
25-10
62%
20-12
72%
23-9
ATS
66%
21-11
83%
29-6
62%
20-12
72%
23-9
TTL
72%
23-9
63%
22-13
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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