Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Wildcats UCF @ KSU

UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

13-2  |  Road

82
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 8:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

9-7  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
KNIGHTS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
122.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (UCF)
KnightsUCF (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

84.1%

Wildcats Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCF -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

UCF By 1-7 points

23.0%

UCF By 8-14 points

27.2%

KSU By 1-7 points

10.7%

KSU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
66
UCF
56
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
69
UCF
73
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u170.5 Win
Proj Total: 122.0
D
Sim u170.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 14, 2026 UCF @ KSU 82 - 73
Feb 26, 2025 KSU @ UCF 76 - 80
Jan 6, 2024 UCF @ KSU 52 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
UCF: 48.9% vs Kansas State: 41.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
UCF: 34.3% vs Kansas State: 32.3%
Steals (L5) +54.5% more
Kansas State: 7.8 vs UCF: 5.1
Blocks (L5) +28.9% more
Kansas State: 3.6 vs UCF: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 66.0 82
KSU Score 56.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 34.3 20.0 / 47.0
Assists 16.4 / 16.1 25.0 / 18.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.8 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.9 / 48.9 45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.6 / 71.6 60.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 36.1 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.8 / 5.1 5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 11.2 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
UCF
KSU
UCF
ML
59% 19-13
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
65% 20-11
ATS
62% 20-12
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
65% 20-11
TTL
47% 15-17
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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