Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hokies @ Mustangs VT @ SMU

VIRGINIA TECH

HOKIESVT

13-4  |  Road

76
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 9:00 PM ET
Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
View Odds Details →

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

12-4  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
HOKIES
100%
📊
MUSTANGS
0%
HOKIES --
MUSTANGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (SMU)
HokiesVT (-3.5) 0 MustangsSMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hokies Cover

9.7%

Mustangs Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

VT By 1-7 points

6.8%

VT By 8-14 points

1.7%

SMU By 1-7 points

18.6%

SMU By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
57
VIRGINIA TECH
70
SMU
Simulated Score
73
VIRGINIA TECH
78
SMU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mustangs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mustangs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mustangs (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Mustangs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u155.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 14, 2026 VT @ SMU 76 - 77
Feb 5, 2025 SMU @ VT 81 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.8% more
SMU: 15.6 vs Virginia Tech: 11.5
Steals (L5) +28.7% more
SMU: 6.9 vs Virginia Tech: 5.3
Turnovers (L5) +23.0% more
SMU: 14.3 vs Virginia Tech: 11.6
Blocks (L5) +17.2% more
SMU: 3.2 vs Virginia Tech: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VT Score 57.0 76
SMU Score 70.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 42.7 / 30.5 20.0 / 32.0
Assists 15.6 / 11.5 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 43.4 48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 82.0 / 76.9 70.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 34.8 / 34.8 38.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.9 / 5.3 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 11.6 11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VT Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VT Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 3.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
VT
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +3.6
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMU
VT
SMU
VT
ML
59% 20-14
53% 17-15
73% 24-9
72% 23-9
ATS
62% 21-13
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
72% 23-9
TTL
56% 19-15
69% 22-10
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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