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UCLA

BRUINSUCLA

11-5  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 8:30 PM ET
Bryce Jordan Center
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

NITTANY LIONSPSU

9-7  |  Home

60
AI Model Win Probability
BRUINS
0%
📊
NITTANY LIONS
100%
BRUINS --
NITTANY LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-54.0
UCLA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +54.0 points (UCLA)
BruinsUCLA (-3.5) 0 Nittany LionsPSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bruins Cover

100.0%

Nittany Lions Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCLA -54.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

UCLA By 1-7 points

0.0%

UCLA By 8-14 points

0.0%

PSU By 1-7 points

0.0%

PSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
101
UCLA
47
PENN STATE
Simulated Score
69
UCLA
75
PENN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bruins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nittany Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bruins (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -54.0
D
Sim Nittany Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 14, 2026 UCLA @ PSU 71 - 60
Feb 8, 2025 PSU @ UCLA 54 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +66.4% more
UCLA: 3.2 vs Penn State: 1.1
Steals (L5) +17.5% more
UCLA: 7.4 vs Penn State: 6.1
Turnovers (L5) +12.4% more
Penn State: 9.8 vs UCLA: 8.7
Free Throw % (L5) +7.9%
Penn State: 79.2% vs UCLA: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCLA Score 101.0 71
PSU Score 47.0 60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 26.4 18.0 / 38.0
Assists 13.3 / 14.4 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.1 / 3.2 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 46.2 43.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 79.2 / 71.3 94.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 32.3 / 30.8 21.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.1 / 7.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 8.7 12.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCLA Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCLA Advantage
17-18-1 (48.6%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: 0.0
PSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCLA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +2.5
PSU
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
UCLA
PSU
UCLA
ML
72% 23-9
67% 24-12
56% 18-14
76% 25-8
ATS
72% 23-9
61% 22-14
56% 18-14
76% 25-8
TTL
66% 21-11
61% 22-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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