Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blue Raiders @ Bulldogs MTSU @ LT

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

10-6  |  Road

58
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 7:30 PM ET
Thomas Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

BULLDOGSLT

9-7  |  Home

59
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
BLUE RAIDERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
Blue RaidersMTSU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Raiders Cover

99.9%

Bulldogs Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MTSU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

MTSU By 1-7 points

0.8%

MTSU By 8-14 points

4.0%

LT By 1-7 points

0.1%

LT By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
39
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
65
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
78
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Raiders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Raiders (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 MTSU @ LT 69 - 80
Jan 14, 2026 MTSU @ LT 58 - 59
Jan 2, 2026 LT @ MTSU 51 - 88
Mar 13, 2025 LT @ MTSU 75 - 77
Feb 20, 2025 LT @ MTSU 85 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +11.7% more
Middle Tennessee: 7.1 vs Louisiana Tech: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
Middle Tennessee: 69.4% vs Louisiana Tech: 57.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
Middle Tennessee: 43.5% vs Louisiana Tech: 40.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Middle Tennessee: 32.0% vs Louisiana Tech: 30.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MTSU Score 70.0 58
LT Score 39.0 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.4 / 32.0 8.0 / 35.0
Assists 12.9 / 13.1 8.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.2 / 3.3 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 40.0 / 43.5 36.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 57.9 / 69.4 76.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 34.6 32.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.1 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 10.7 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MTSU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
LT Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
LT Advantage
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
LT
15-15-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
MTSU
LT
MTSU
ML
58% 19-14
56% 18-14
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
ATS
61% 20-13
75% 24-8
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
TTL
61% 20-13
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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