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EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

5-11  |  Road

71
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Yuengling Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

10-6  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
BULLS
0%
PIRATES --
BULLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (South Florida)
PiratesECU (-3.5) 0 BullsUSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

2.9%

Bulls Cover

97.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USF -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

ECU By 1-7 points

2.2%

ECU By 8-14 points

0.4%

USF By 1-7 points

9.3%

USF By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
54
EAST CAROLINA
73
SOUTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
68
EAST CAROLINA
72
SOUTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulls Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulls Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulls (-18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim Bulls (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 14, 2026 ECU @ USF 71 - 82
Jan 25, 2025 USF @ ECU 55 - 64
Dec 31, 2024 ECU @ USF 69 - 75
Mar 15, 2024 ECU @ USF 59 - 81
Jan 31, 2024 USF @ ECU 71 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.4% more
South Florida: 8.6 vs East Carolina: 5.8
Assists (L5) +35.9% more
South Florida: 17.4 vs East Carolina: 12.8
Rebounding (L5) +11.7% more
South Florida: 43.7 vs East Carolina: 39.1
Free Throw % (L5) +6.0%
South Florida: 70.6% vs East Carolina: 64.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 54.0 71
USF Score 73.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 29.5 39.0 / 29.0
Assists 17.4 / 12.8 19.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.6 / 5.5 4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 43.2 38.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 64.6 77.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 43.7 / 39.1 41.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.6 / 5.8 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 13.7 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
ECU
USF
ECU
ML
61% 20-13
55% 17-14
52% 16-15
55% 17-14
ATS
61% 20-13
52% 16-15
52% 16-15
55% 17-14
TTL
52% 17-16
61% 19-12
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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