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AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

10-6  |  Road

74
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Mizzou Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

TIGERSMIZ

12-4  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
TIGERS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Missouri)
TigersAUB (-3.5) 0 TigersMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

27.4%

Tigers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIZ -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

AUB By 1-7 points

16.9%

AUB By 8-14 points

6.8%

MIZ By 1-7 points

26.8%

MIZ By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
75
AUBURN
81
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
68
AUBURN
72
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 14, 2026 AUB @ MIZ 74 - 84
Jan 4, 2025 MIZ @ AUB 68 - 84
Mar 5, 2024 AUB @ MIZ 101 - 74
Feb 14, 2023 MIZ @ AUB 56 - 89
Jan 25, 2022 AUB @ MIZ 55 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.9% more
Auburn: 8.1 vs Missouri: 5.7
Rebounding (L5) +16.3% more
Auburn: 39.2 vs Missouri: 32.8
Free Throw % (L5) +10.5%
Auburn: 71.8% vs Missouri: 61.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Auburn: 37.0% vs Missouri: 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 75.0 74
MIZ Score 81.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 37.0 47.0 / 29.0
Assists 17.0 / 16.5 18.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.1 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 49.7 56.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 61.3 / 71.8 68.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 32.8 / 39.2 32.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.7 / 8.1 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 11.6 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIZ Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
MIZ Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
AUB
MIZ
AUB
ML
61% 20-13
58% 22-16
69% 22-10
75% 24-8
ATS
70% 23-10
74% 28-10
69% 22-10
75% 24-8
TTL
79% 26-7
53% 20-18
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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