Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Illini @ Wildcats ILL @ NU

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

13-3  |  Road

79
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 8:30 PM ET
Welsh-Ryan Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

WILDCATSNU

8-8  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING ILLINI
100%
📊
WILDCATS
0%
FIGHTING ILLINI --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Northwestern)
Fighting IlliniILL (-3.5) 0 WildcatsNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Illini Cover

0.0%

Wildcats Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NU -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

ILL By 1-7 points

0.0%

ILL By 8-14 points

0.0%

NU By 1-7 points

0.1%

NU By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
62
ILLINOIS
100
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
72
ILLINOIS
80
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Wildcats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Wildcats (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -38.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 4, 2026 NU @ ILL 44 - 84
Jan 14, 2026 ILL @ NU 79 - 68
Jan 26, 2025 NU @ ILL 74 - 83
Dec 6, 2024 ILL @ NU 66 - 70
Jan 24, 2024 ILL @ NU 91 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +49.0% more
Northwestern: 6.3 vs Illinois: 4.2
Assists (L5) +23.8% more
Northwestern: 18.1 vs Illinois: 14.7
Turnovers (L5) +38.8% more
Illinois: 10.3 vs Northwestern: 6.3
Rebounding (L5) +22.6% more
Illinois: 41.8 vs Northwestern: 32.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 62.0 79
NU Score 100.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.2 / 34.6 36.0 / 37.0
Assists 18.1 / 14.7 12.0 / 11.0
Blocks 4.7 / 5.2 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.0 / 46.5 39.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 71.6 / 82.7 88.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 41.8 30.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.2 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 6.3 / 10.3 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
NU
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
NU
16-16-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
NU
15-18-1
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
ILL
NU
ILL
ML
47% 16-18
65% 24-13
68% 23-11
57% 20-15
ATS
50% 17-17
70% 26-11
68% 23-11
57% 20-15
TTL
53% 18-16
57% 21-16
100% 34-0
100% 35-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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