Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Rebels @ Bulldogs MISS @ UGA

OLE MISS

REBELSMISS

9-7  |  Road

97
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Stegeman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA

BULLDOGSUGA

14-2  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
REBELS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
REBELS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
173.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
GEORGIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RebelsMISS (-3.5) 0 BulldogsUGA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rebels Cover

18.4%

Bulldogs Cover

81.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UGA +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UGA)

MISS By 1-7 points

24.3%

MISS By 8-14 points

26.8%

UGA By 1-7 points

12.2%

UGA By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
91
OLE MISS
82
GEORGIA
Simulated Score
68
OLE MISS
72
GEORGIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rebels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o158.5 Win
Proj Total: 173.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 MISS @ UGA 76 - 72
Jan 14, 2026 MISS @ UGA 97 - 95
Jan 4, 2025 UGA @ MISS 51 - 63
Mar 5, 2024 MISS @ UGA 66 - 69
Feb 7, 2023 MISS @ UGA 78 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +16.3% more
Ole Miss: 14.8 vs Georgia: 12.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.5%
Ole Miss: 35.6% vs Georgia: 28.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.9%
Ole Miss: 77.1% vs Georgia: 72.2%
Blocks (L5) +48.1% more
Georgia: 7.0 vs Ole Miss: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MISS Score 91.0 97
UGA Score 82.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.1 / 35.6 43.0 / 46.0
Assists 12.4 / 14.8 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 7.0 / 4.7 1.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 44.8 38.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 77.1 76.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 33.7 42.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.4 / 6.3 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 9.3 9.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MISS
--
UGA Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MISS
--
UGA Advantage
15-17-1 (46.9%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MISS
--
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UGA
MISS
UGA
MISS
ML
67% 22-11
48% 16-17
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
ATS
61% 20-13
61% 20-13
56% 18-14
52% 17-16
TTL
64% 21-12
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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