Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Redbirds @ Sycamores ILST @ INST

ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

12-5  |  Road

89
FINAL
Wed, Jan 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Hulman Center
View Odds Details →

INDIANA STATE

SYCAMORESINST

8-9  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
100%
📊
SYCAMORES
0%
REDBIRDS --
SYCAMORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
INDIANA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Indiana State)
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 SycamoresINST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

34.5%

Sycamores Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around INST -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (INST)

ILST By 1-7 points

20.1%

ILST By 8-14 points

9.3%

INST By 1-7 points

27.4%

INST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
70
ILLINOIS STATE
74
INDIANA STATE
Simulated Score
68
ILLINOIS STATE
75
INDIANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Sycamores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sycamores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sycamores (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Sycamores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 14, 2026 ILST @ INST 89 - 94
Dec 21, 2025 INST @ ILST 65 - 85
Feb 15, 2025 ILST @ INST 76 - 85
Jan 21, 2025 INST @ ILST 81 - 85
Feb 13, 2024 ILST @ INST 80 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.4% more
Indiana State: 16.5 vs Illinois State: 13.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Indiana State: 44.5% vs Illinois State: 41.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Illinois State: 31.6% vs Indiana State: 28.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 70.0 89
INST Score 74.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 31.6 33.0 / 43.0
Assists 16.5 / 13.2 26.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.2 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 41.8 56.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 68.4 73.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 34.9 / 36.6 30.0 / 28.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.8 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 11.6 6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
INST
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
INST Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
INST
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
INST
ILST
INST
ILST
ML
66% 21-11
42% 15-21
53% 17-15
71% 24-10
ATS
62% 20-12
58% 21-15
53% 17-15
71% 24-10
TTL
53% 17-15
58% 21-15
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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