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TORONTO

MAPLE LEAFSTOR

23-15-7  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 10:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

MAMMOTHUTA

22-20-4  |  Home

6
Goaltending
Troy Stecher
GOALTENDER

Troy Stecher

#28 | Defense
@
Karel Vejmelka
GOALTENDER

Karel Vejmelka

#70 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Troy Stecher None-None -- -- --
Karel Vejmelka None-None 1.00 0.950 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
-- GAA 1.00
-- Save % 0.950
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
📊
MAMMOTH
0%
MAPLE LEAFS --
MAMMOTH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Utah)
Maple LeafsTOR (-3.5) 0 MammothUTA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maple Leafs Cover

30.9%

Mammoth Cover

69.1%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around UTA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTA)

TOR By 1 goal

12.1%

TOR By 2-3 goals

9.3%

UTA By 1 goal

19.7%

UTA By 2-3 goals

29.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
TORONTO
4
UTAH
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
4
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mammoth Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mammoth Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mammoth (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Mammoth (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim u6.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 TOR @ UTA 1 - 6
Nov 5, 2025 UTA @ TOR 3 - 5
Mar 10, 2025 TOR @ UTA 4 - 3
Nov 24, 2024 UTA @ TOR 2 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5) +8.1%
Toronto: 18.4% vs Utah: 10.3%
Faceoff % (L5) +7.7%
Toronto: 58.3% vs Utah: 50.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.0 1
UTA Score 4.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 16.7 / 17.8 15.0 / 22.0
Faceoff % 50.6 / 58.3 56.3 / 43.8
Hits 16.9 / 16.9 21.0 / 21.0
Power Play % 1029.0 / 1843.0 0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 25.3 / 26.6 41.0 / 20.0
Takeaways 5.1 / 5.4 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
38%MONEY62%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTA
TOR
UTA
TOR
ML
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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