Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Braves @ Purple Aces BRAD @ EVAN

BRADLEY

BRAVESBRAD

12-6  |  Road

94
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 8:00 PM ET
Ford Center
View Odds Details →

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

5-13  |  Home

90
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
0%
📊
PURPLE ACES
100%
BRAVES --
PURPLE ACES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
EVANSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BravesBRAD (-3.5) 0 Purple AcesEVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

46.0%

Purple Aces Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around EVAN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EVAN)

BRAD By 1-7 points

26.2%

BRAD By 8-14 points

16.9%

EVAN By 1-7 points

24.3%

EVAN By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
92
BRADLEY
91
EVANSVILLE
Simulated Score
65
BRADLEY
72
EVANSVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Braves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Aces Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Purple Aces (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
D
Sim Purple Aces (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 BRAD @ EVAN 94 - 90
Dec 29, 2025 EVAN @ BRAD 68 - 76
Feb 8, 2025 BRAD @ EVAN 80 - 74
Feb 7, 2024 BRAD @ EVAN 70 - 73
Jan 10, 2024 EVAN @ BRAD 50 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +17.6% more
Bradley: 38.7 vs Evansville: 31.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.1%
Bradley: 35.5% vs Evansville: 27.4%
Turnovers (L5) +105.7% more
Evansville: 15.3 vs Bradley: 7.4
Blocks (L5) +32.7% more
Evansville: 4.3 vs Bradley: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRAD Score 92.0 94
EVAN Score 91.0 90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.4 / 35.5 46.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.9 / 13.0 19.0 / 16.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.3 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 43.4 51.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 81.0 / 70.0 74.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 38.7 35.0 / 35.0
Steals 6.0 / 6.2 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 7.4 15.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRAD Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRAD
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: -0.9
EVAN Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BRAD
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.6
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
EVAN
BRAD
EVAN
BRAD
ML
56% 18-14
65% 22-12
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
ATS
66% 21-11
59% 20-14
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
TTL
62% 20-12
68% 23-11
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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