VALPARAISO
BEACONSVAL
8-9 | Road
74
BELMONT
BRUINSBEL
15-3 | Home
78
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
0%
BRUINS
100%
BEACONS
--
BRUINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
VALPARAISO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Valparaiso)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VAL -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAL)
VAL By 1-7 points
18.6%
VAL By 8-14 points
26.8%
BEL By 1-7 points
6.8%
BEL By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Valparaiso
75
VALPARAISO
Belmont
62
BELMONT
Simulated Score
Valparaiso
70
VALPARAISO
Belmont
81
BELMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Beacons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bruins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Beacons (-11.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Bruins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 28, 2026
BEL @ VAL
78 - 77
Jan 13, 2026
VAL @ BEL
74 - 78
Feb 12, 2025
BEL @ VAL
86 - 101
Jan 14, 2025
VAL @ BEL
64 - 71
Mar 7, 2024
VAL @ BEL
61 - 86
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.7%
Valparaiso: 77.8%
vs
Belmont: 66.0%
Blocks (L5)
+11.2% more
Valparaiso: 3.7
vs
Belmont: 3.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+7.8%
Valparaiso: 45.2%
vs
Belmont: 37.5%
Assists (L5)
+58.7% more
Belmont: 15.8
vs
Valparaiso: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VAL Score
75.0
74
BEL Score
62.0
78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.5 / 45.2
40.0 / 39.0
Assists
15.8 / 10.0
17.0 / 16.0
Blocks
3.3 / 3.7
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
49.1 / 43.5
56.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
66.0 / 77.8
100.0 / 53.0
Rebounding
37.5 / 33.9
29.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.0 / 5.3
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 12.4
9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
BEL
Advantage
26-6-0
(81.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL
Advantage
18-13-1
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: +2.7
BEL
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: -0.9
BEL
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7%
Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BEL
VAL
BEL
VAL
ML
47%
15-17
48%
16-17
62%
20-12
61%
20-13
ATS
56%
18-14
52%
17-16
62%
20-12
61%
20-13
TTL
44%
14-18
61%
20-13
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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