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INDIANA

HOOSIERSIU

12-4  |  Road

60
FINAL
Tue, Jan 13 • 8:00 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

14-2  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
HOOSIERS
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
HOOSIERS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
INDIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Indiana)
HoosiersIU (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hoosiers Cover

99.4%

Spartans Cover

0.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

IU By 1-7 points

3.3%

IU By 8-14 points

10.7%

MSU By 1-7 points

0.5%

MSU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
100
INDIANA
75
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
69
INDIANA
73
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hoosiers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hoosiers (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 MSU @ IU 77 - 64
Jan 13, 2026 IU @ MSU 60 - 81
Feb 11, 2025 IU @ MSU 71 - 67
Mar 10, 2024 MSU @ IU 64 - 65
Feb 21, 2023 IU @ MSU 65 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +8.4%
Indiana: 81.3% vs Michigan State: 72.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Indiana: 36.0% vs Michigan State: 33.7%
Blocks (L5) +333.0% more
Michigan State: 4.2 vs Indiana: 0.9
Steals (L5) +37.0% more
Michigan State: 5.2 vs Indiana: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IU Score 100.0 60
MSU Score 75.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 36.0 31.0 / 32.0
Assists 17.6 / 15.5 17.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.2 / 0.9 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 47.1 / 46.5 51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 72.9 / 81.3 79.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 42.4 / 35.8 37.0 / 19.0
Steals 5.2 / 3.8 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 11.5 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IU
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
MSU Advantage
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IU
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3% Total +/-: -0.7
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
IU
MSU
IU
ML
71% 25-10
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
71% 22-9
ATS
71% 25-10
53% 17-15
61% 20-13
71% 22-9
TTL
49% 17-18
56% 18-14
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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