IOWA STATE
CYCLONESISU
16-0 | Road
63
KANSAS
JAYHAWKSKU
11-5 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
CYCLONES
100%
JAYHAWKS
0%
CYCLONES
--
JAYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Kansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)
ISU By 1-7 points
3.3%
ISU By 8-14 points
0.6%
KU By 1-7 points
12.2%
KU By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa State
64
IOWA STATE
Kansas
81
KANSAS
Simulated Score
Iowa State
72
IOWA STATE
Kansas
78
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jayhawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jayhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jayhawks (+3.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Jayhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
KU @ ISU
56 - 74
Jan 13, 2026
ISU @ KU
63 - 84
Feb 3, 2025
ISU @ KU
52 - 69
Jan 15, 2025
KU @ ISU
57 - 74
Jan 27, 2024
KU @ ISU
75 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+79.4% more
Kansas: 5.6
vs
Iowa State: 3.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.4%
Kansas: 78.7%
vs
Iowa State: 68.3%
Assists (L5)
+23.5% more
Iowa State: 18.0
vs
Kansas: 13.8
Steals (L5)
+18.4% more
Iowa State: 8.3
vs
Kansas: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ISU Score
64.0
63
KU Score
81.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 36.4
50.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.8 / 18.0
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
5.6 / 3.1
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
46.7 / 47.8
51.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
78.7 / 68.3
83.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
37.3 / 38.7
37.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.8 / 8.3
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.0 / 10.8
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
Advantage
29-8-0
(78.4%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
KU
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
Advantage
22-14-1
(61.1%)
Margin: 16.4
ATS +/-: +2.3
KU
21-14-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8%
Total +/-: -1.4
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6%
Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
ISU
KU
ISU
ML
57%
20-15
57%
21-16
68%
21-10
76%
26-8
ATS
49%
17-18
62%
23-14
68%
21-10
76%
26-8
TTL
60%
21-14
54%
20-17
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
Contextual Game News
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