TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
27-13-3 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
FLYERSPHI
22-13-8 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
J.J. Moser
#90 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Dan Vladar
#80 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Moser | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Dan Vladar | None-None | 4.16 | 0.840 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
4.16
--
Save %
0.840
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
0%
FLYERS
100%
LIGHTNING
--
FLYERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
TB By 1 goal
19.7%
TB By 2-3 goals
29.6%
PHI By 1 goal
12.1%
PHI By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Philadelphia
2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lightning
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flyers
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flyers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Flyers (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Push
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 5, 2026
PHI @ TB
1 - 4
Jan 12, 2026
TB @ PHI
5 - 1
Jan 10, 2026
TB @ PHI
7 - 2
Nov 24, 2025
PHI @ TB
0 - 3
Mar 17, 2025
PHI @ TB
0 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+10.0%
Tampa Bay: 29.1%
vs
Philadelphia: 19.0%
Faceoff % (L5)
+3.6%
Tampa Bay: 47.7%
vs
Philadelphia: 44.1%
Hits (L5)
+39.5% more
Philadelphia: 25.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 18.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+39.2% more
Philadelphia: 15.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
5
PHI Score
2.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.1 / 10.9
17.0 / 11.0
Faceoff %
44.1 / 47.7
64.6 / 35.4
Hits
25.1 / 18.0
32.0 / 10.0
Power Play %
19.0 / 29.1
0.0 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
26.3 / 25.2
21.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
4.9 / 4.2
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TB
PHI
TB
ML
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
40%
2-3
75%
3-1
ATS
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
TTL
20%
1-4
75%
3-1
40%
2-3
100%
4-0
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