TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
22-15-7 | Road
4
COLORADO
AVALANCHECOL
33-4-7 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Troy Stecher
#28 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Trent Miner
#50 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Stecher | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Trent Miner | None-None | 3.78 | 0.903 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
3.78
--
Save %
0.903
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
AVALANCHE
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AVALANCHE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around COL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
TOR By 1 goal
12.1%
TOR By 2-3 goals
9.3%
COL By 1 goal
19.7%
COL By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Avalanche
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Avalanche
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Avalanche (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Avalanche (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 25, 2026
COL @ TOR
4 - 1
Jan 12, 2026
TOR @ COL
4 - 3
Mar 19, 2025
COL @ TOR
1 - 2
Mar 8, 2025
TOR @ COL
4 - 7
Feb 24, 2024
TOR @ COL
4 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5)
+32.9% more
Colorado: 32.4
vs
Toronto: 24.4
Hits (L5)
+34.5% more
Toronto: 18.9
vs
Colorado: 12.4
Power Play % (L5)
+15.2%
Toronto: 27.6%
vs
Colorado: 12.5%
Faceoff % (L5)
+5.6%
Toronto: 62.0%
vs
Colorado: 56.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
2.0
4
COL Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.8 / 15.7
12.0 / 22.0
Faceoff %
56.4 / 62.0
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
12.4 / 18.9
14.0 / 13.0
Power Play %
12.5 / 27.6
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.4 / 24.4
34.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
3.8 / 4.1
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TOR
COL
TOR
ML
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-4
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
TTL
33%
1-2
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
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