SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
27-11 | Road
103
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
25-14 | Home
104
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
SPURS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
243.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
SA By 1-7 points
24.3%
SA By 8-14 points
13.7%
MIN By 1-7 points
26.2%
MIN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
121
SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota
122
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
San Antonio
105
SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota
107
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Timberwolves (+2)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Timberwolves (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 243.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 15, 2026
SA @ MIN
139 - 109
May 12, 2026
MIN @ SA
97 - 126
May 10, 2026
SA @ MIN
109 - 114
May 8, 2026
SA @ MIN
115 - 108
May 6, 2026
MIN @ SA
95 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+32.2% more
Minnesota: 5.8
vs
San Antonio: 4.4
Turnovers (L5)
+31.4% more
Minnesota: 14.8
vs
San Antonio: 11.2
Assists (L5)
+23.8% more
Minnesota: 29.7
vs
San Antonio: 24.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+18.5%
Minnesota: 43.4%
vs
San Antonio: 24.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
121.0
103
MIN Score
122.0
104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.4 / 24.9
31.0 / 34.0
Assists
29.7 / 24.0
23.0 / 19.0
Blocks
5.8 / 4.4
7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
53.7 / 43.0
43.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
73.0 / 78.2
56.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
46.2 / 50.6
50.0 / 49.0
Steals
8.5 / 7.4
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 11.2
9.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SA
MIN
SA
ML
54%
63-53
60%
111-73
54%
50-43
58%
61-44
ATS
58%
67-49
58%
107-76-1
54%
50-43
58%
61-44
TTL
63%
72-43-1
74%
134-47-3
100%
93-0
100%
105-0
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