Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ Nuggets MIL @ DEN

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

17-21  |  Road

104
FINAL
Sun, Jan 11 • 8:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

25-13  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
📊
NUGGETS
0%
BUCKS --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Denver)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

38.2%

Nuggets Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

MIL By 1-7 points

21.6%

MIL By 8-14 points

10.7%

DEN By 1-7 points

27.2%

DEN By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
111
MILWAUKEE
114
DENVER
Simulated Score
114
MILWAUKEE
118
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nuggets Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nuggets (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o219.0 Loss
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u219.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 DEN @ MIL 102 - 100
Jan 11, 2026 MIL @ DEN 104 - 108
Mar 26, 2025 MIL @ DEN 117 - 127
Feb 27, 2025 DEN @ MIL 112 - 121
Feb 12, 2024 DEN @ MIL 95 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.2% more
Denver: 4.6 vs Milwaukee: 3.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Denver: 39.2% vs Milwaukee: 37.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Milwaukee: 49.1% vs Denver: 45.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 111.0 104
DEN Score 114.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 37.5 40.0 / 41.0
Assists 25.2 / 25.4 23.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.6 / 3.3 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 49.1 40.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 75.8 77.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 41.9 45.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.1 / 6.7 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 14.2 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIL
DEN
MIL
ML
54% 57-48
64% 61-35
55% 47-39
60% 49-32
ATS
63% 65-38-2
68% 65-31
55% 47-39
60% 49-32
TTL
54% 56-48-1
55% 53-43
100% 86-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Tyler Kolek's Girlfriend Spills: Knicks Parade Police Mix-Up Hap…
nypost 1 hour, 59 minutes ago
Phillies' 2027 Forecast: Four Farmhands Ready to Step Up
si 14 hours, 30 minutes ago
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
si 14 hours, 30 minutes ago
Donovan Mitchell Sounds Off on Ring Culture Disrespect Toward Ja…
yahoo 20 hours, 54 minutes ago
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
chicago_suntimes 21 hours ago