ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
19-21 | Road
124
GOLDEN STATE
WARRIORSGS
21-18 | Home
111
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
HAWKS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)
ATL By 1-7 points
27.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
23.0%
GS By 1-7 points
18.6%
GS By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
119
ATLANTA
Golden State
114
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Golden State
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warriors (+6)
Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
GS @ ATL
110 - 126
Jan 11, 2026
ATL @ GS
124 - 111
Mar 22, 2025
GS @ ATL
115 - 124
Nov 20, 2024
ATL @ GS
97 - 120
Feb 3, 2024
GS @ ATL
134 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+34.5% more
Atlanta: 12.1
vs
Golden State: 7.9
Blocks (L5)
+21.2% more
Atlanta: 5.3
vs
Golden State: 4.2
Turnovers (L5)
+10.2% more
Atlanta: 13.1
vs
Golden State: 11.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+21.3%
Golden State: 86.4%
vs
Atlanta: 65.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
119.0
124
GS Score
114.0
111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 37.7
24.0 / 38.0
Assists
32.6 / 30.8
28.0 / 33.0
Blocks
4.2 / 5.3
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.7 / 46.4
47.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
86.4 / 65.1
81.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
41.5 / 43.4
48.0 / 46.0
Steals
7.9 / 12.1
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.8 / 13.1
16.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
38-46-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
GS
36-48-0
(42.9%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
ATL
GS
ATL
ML
55%
95-79
50%
52-52
58%
49-35
55%
48-40
ATS
58%
101-73
53%
55-48-1
58%
49-35
55%
48-40
TTL
77%
134-40
53%
55-48-1
100%
84-0
100%
88-0
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