CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
8-7 | Road
72
UCF
KNIGHTSUCF
12-2 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
0%
KNIGHTS
100%
BEARCATS
--
KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CIN -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-7 points
12.2%
CIN By 8-14 points
23.0%
UCF By 1-7 points
3.3%
UCF By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
100
CINCINNATI
UCF
83
UCF
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
68
CINCINNATI
UCF
75
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bearcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bearcats (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
CIN @ UCF
65 - 66
Feb 8, 2026
UCF @ CIN
72 - 92
Jan 11, 2026
CIN @ UCF
72 - 73
Apr 3, 2025
UCF @ CIN
88 - 80
Feb 5, 2025
CIN @ UCF
93 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+27.3% more
Cincinnati: 3.7
vs
UCF: 2.7
Assists (L5)
+16.6% more
Cincinnati: 16.9
vs
UCF: 14.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Cincinnati: 33.2%
vs
UCF: 29.9%
Steals (L5)
+33.0% more
UCF: 7.1
vs
Cincinnati: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
100.0
72
UCF Score
83.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.9 / 33.2
43.0 / 16.0
Assists
14.1 / 16.9
20.0 / 19.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.7
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 40.4
58.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
68.4 / 60.9
78.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
39.2 / 36.1
30.0 / 27.0
Steals
7.1 / 5.3
1.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.9 / 10.6
14.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
UCF
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
UCF
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
CIN
UCF
CIN
ML
55%
18-15
67%
22-11
65%
20-11
74%
23-8
ATS
55%
18-15
64%
21-12
65%
20-11
74%
23-8
TTL
61%
20-13
67%
22-11
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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